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Avec la communauté scientifique française sur le 7e rapport d’évaluation du GIEC
28/06/2024 09:30
Une journée de réflexion collective de la communauté scientifique française impliquée dans la recherche sur le changement climatique est organisée dans le cadre des travaux de son 7e cycle engagés par le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC).
Journée scientifique SIRTA 2024
12/06/2024 09:30
Le SIRTA, Observatoire de Recherche Atmosphérique de l’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, organise cette année sa 23e Journée Scientifique.
Forum International de la Météo et du Climat 2024 / L’exposition Grand Public
31/05/2024 09:00
La 21e édition du Forum de la Météo et du Climat revient au printemps avec 3 temps forts pour le grand public et les professionnels !
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Vendredi de l'OVSQ - Le (vrai) bilan de la COP 28
09/02/2024 12:30
Valéry Laramée de Tannenberg est journaliste, rédacteur en chef de l’Usine à GES.
Journalistes et scientifiques : la fin du « je t’aime, moi non plus » ?
06/02/2024 17:00
Séminaire du cycle « Partager & Agir ».
Greenhouse gas budgets for two carbon farming options show small or negative climate benefit
02/02/2024 13:00
Rasmus Einarsson est octorant à la Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences d’Uppsala.
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European climate change: co-development of local climate services and clustering approaches
27/09/2021 14:00
Climate change has various impacts on society, but future changes are uncertain and a wide gap remains between the scientific knowledge and societal action (mitigation, adaptation). The gap in climate adaptation was partly addressed by the recent growth of climate services, but their local usability is associated to many barriers. France is an example of lacking climate adaptation at territorial level, and this thesis focuses on the Gulf of Morbihan as a case study. My research aims first to identify the role of climate change in the territory, second to support the local development of adaptation planning, and third to explore future climate change through the angle of clustering approaches.
To identify the local role of climate change, I analyze the literature (grey and academic) and engage in field interviews with various stakeholders. Particular features of the territory emerge: the coastal-inland contrast (economy, demography), the socioeconomic life organized seasonally, and the dependence and conflict between agriculture and tourism. The local role of climate change is complex, impacting emblematic activities (oyster farming, salt production), overlapping with existing issues (socioeconomic imbalance, land-use conflict), and affecting agriculture negatively (warmer and drier summers) but tourism positively (longer summer weather). The local experiences are generallyconsistent with scientific knowledge (ongoing changes, link to climate change), although some elements are scarce in local perceptions (heatwaves).
To assist local adaptation, I participated to the experimentation of different foresight activities (scenario workshop, art-science exhibition, conference-debate) with local stakeholders, based on an assessment of climate services and on creative art-design tools (e.g. poker design cards). The main outcomes are two long-term scenarios, multiple short-term actions and several hinge points on which the scenarios depend. The two scenarios represent divergent visions of the territory: continued occupation of the coast despite coastal risks, or withdrawal from the coast and densification of urban areas inland. The scenarios depend on the issue development of urbanization and spatial planning, food and energy autonomy, and demographic balance. The theme of food and energy autonomy concentrates conflicting views between inhabitants, highlighting fears and desires about long-term territorial choice.
My investigation of the territory highlighted several climatic themes (e.g. seasonality of weather conditions) that are linked to atmospheric circulation, but future circulation changes are highly uncertain. To investigate the future seasonality of atmospheric circulation, I classify year-round patterns of geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from a reanalysis and several climate models. Despite their biases, climate models reproduce similar evolution of circulation seasonality as the reanalysis. During the last decades, winter conditions have decreased while summer conditions have increased, and these changes strengthen under future climate change. Yet circulation seasonality remains similar relatively to the increase in average Z500, and the same happens for surface temperatures associated to the circulation patterns. I additionally developed the perspective of a new approach to study the local evolution of weather seasonality, based on the classification of multiple variables (temperature, precipitation, windspeed).
In addition to the effects from future climate change, the Gulf of Morbihan will probably welcome new populations, and an active collective strategy of adaptation is required. Several routes have been featured in my research to address the local needs in climate adaptation, including perspectives inspired from existing climate services in other countries. The findings from this thesis highlight the physical and social dimensions of climate change.
La soutenance de thèse aura lieu en ligne : https://bbb.lsce.ipsl.fr/b/sou-6md-694
