Séminaire
The precipitation response to increased greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration is one of the most critical factors of the overall impact of climate change. The presence of natural climate variability on decadal-to-multidecadal timescales is expected to modulate the long-term projections at the regional scales. This can be viewed as an irreducible source of uncertainties for the climate response to GHG forcing, which should be quantified and better understood.
Based on multi-member ensembles from a coupled general circulation model, and global atmospheric energetics, as a theoretical backdrop, I will show how internal fluctuations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can influence the changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration.
francis.codron@upmc.fr