From seasons to decades: Challenges and successes in climate predictions
Climate models are an important tool to gain a better understanding about the future of our climate. With them it is possible to reliably predict and project various climate variables over different scales. Seasonal-to-decadal predictions (S2D) combine climate models with initialisation procedures and allow us beside the important predictions to learn about the models themselves.
The North Atlantic sector is a great laboratory for such investigations. By the interaction of multiple climate modes like the NAO or AMOC it gives us a test ground, which allow us to make high impact predictions for the European continent. Nevertheless, models are not perfect and so offer us many challenges, which we counter with the understanding of physical processes and the application of innovative statistical procedures.
This talk will investigate predictability and its challenges in the North Atlantic area from seasons to multiple decades. For this we will take a look at the applicability of statistical procedures on seasonal scales to post-process ensemble and to identify new ways to potentially predict extremes in Europe. Furthermore, we take a look at challenges in S2D predictions, like varying prediction skill and what this might teach us about our models. The presentation will also take a look at model potentials, like predicting more than ten years ahead and whether it is possible to predict not only single values but also full distributions.
Salle du LOCEAN, couloir 45-55, 4e étage, pièce 417.