Reaching the Paris Agreement in Earth System Models: pathways and impacts

Yona Silvy (Université de Berne)

Climate policies such as the Paris Agreement are framed in terms of global warming levels.


Date début 26/09/2023 11:00
Date fin 26/09/2023
Organisateur LOCEAN
Lieu LOCEAN (campus Jussieu), couloir 45-55, 4e étage, pièce 417


Yet, global warming scenarios in the successive CMIP exercises have been framed in terms of prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration or emissions. This has led to a wide range of warming levels per CO2 pathway in response to the different transient climate responses to cumulative emissions in coupled climate models.

Diverse climate impacts at different levels of global warming have thus generally been evaluated in simulations where the warming targets are passed transiently, at different points in time, and not stabilized, as opposed to how climate agreements are framed. Here, we propose a new Model Intercomparison Project AERA-MIP building on an adaptive approach that successively calculates the compatible emissions to stabilize global warming at the required temperature target.

The warming uncertainty is thus side-stepped, while different emission pathways emerge out of the variety of participating Earth System Models (ESMs). In this presentation, I will focus on the remaining emission budget and the compatible emissions with the 1.5°C and 2.0°C targets as simulated by these ESMs, and the associated distribution of carbon in the Earth System.

I will also present some applications of this new MIP to the assessment of climate impacts and the evolution of ocean conditions when the surface temperature is stabilized. Finally, I will try to convince the younger minds why doing a postdoc in Switzerland is the best.

Informations supplémentaires

Sorbonne Université, Campus Pierre et Marie Curie (Jussieu)
Couloir 45-55, 4e étage, pièce 417