We review recent advances in predictability studies of weather and climate, with focus on the transition from physical numerical models to artificial intelligence models. We first summarize the rapid development of large weather and ocean forecasting models and highlights the necessity of extending traditional predictability theories to AI-based forecasting systems. Special attention is given to the first kind of predictability problem and the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation method, which has been widely applied in mechanism studies and targeted observation. We further discuss new opportunities and challenges arising in the era of AI models, including generalization capability and interpretability for atmospheric sciences. Several examples are presented to demonstrate how AI models can be used not only for forecasting but also for scientific discovery. Finally, we emphasize on the importance of high-quality training data, physical mechanism representation and deep collaboration between AI and atmospheric sciences.

Professor Mu Mu is from Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University. He is a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (since 2007) and the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (since 2008). He is also a member of two IAMAS commissions: the International Committee on Dynamic Meteorology (ICDM), the International Commission on Planetary Atmospheres and their Evolution (ICPAE). Prof. Mu Mu is Deputy Editor-in-chief for Science China Earth Sciences and Climatic and Environmental Research. His research interest includes (1) predictability of weather and climate, (2) data assimilation, ensemble prediction and adaptive observation, and (3) nonlinear stability and instability problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. Over the years, Professor Mu has received several awards, including the Ho Leung Ho Lee Foundation Science and Technology Progress Award, the First Class Prize of the Natural Science Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Second Prize of the State Natural Science Award.

Lieu
Salle 313, LMD, Sorbonne Université, Tour 45/55, 3e étage, 75005 Paris

Visio
https://rendez-vous.renater.fr/muted/Seminar-Prof-MuMu_54c3cb-91aa92-1470d2