Climate: the energy paradox of milder winters
Despite milder winters and an overall drop in heating requirements, cold snaps, although rarer, will generate more intense peaks in additional demand. A study carried out by CNRS Terre & Univers (including LMD-IPSL) and EDF shows the need to adapt the French electricity network to more variable electricity consumption and production, and to rethink the mechanisms for financing flexibility.
The electrification of energy use, particularly for heating, is a key lever in the energy transition. In France, where electricity plays a central role in the building sector, this transition is already well underway. Against a backdrop of global warming, one might think that heating needs would be falling and that the pressure on the electricity network would be easing. However, this study reveals a paradox: cold snaps, although less frequent, will generate more intense peaks in additional demand, putting the electricity system under strain at critical times.
Consumption model and climate simulations
The scientists used an approach based on heating degree days, combined with an electricity consumption model. Ten climate simulations were used to analyse four emissions scenarios. By keeping current uses and equipment constant, the study isolates the effect of climate on winter electricity demand, particularly during periods of extreme cold. However, this study does not yet take into account all the dynamics of demand evolution (increasing electrification, energy efficiency, etc.), which could reinforce or attenuate the trends observed.
Adapting the French electricity network
Annual heating demand could fall by between 4% and 12% by 2085. However, additional electricity consumption during cold snaps could be 35% higher than on a normal day, compared with 25% today. This occasional but increased pressure means that the electricity network needs to be adapted to cope with more variable electricity consumption and production. Flexibility resources, such as peak-load power plants, could be used less but could have to supply higher power levels, raising the question of their economic viability. These results call for a rethink of the mechanisms for financing flexibility, through supply, demand and storage, and for adapting the grid to make it more resilient.
In 2012, a cold snap led to a peak in electricity consumption of +22 GW (A). The study shows that in the future, these peaks, although rarer, could be more intense, putting the network under great pressure (B and C). © Reference
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Reference
Filahi, H., Drobinski, P., Oueslati, B. et al. Rising power system strains despite decreasing heating demand in a warming climate. Sci Rep. 15, 12470 (2025).
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Source: CNRS Terre & Univers.
