The Earth’s climate is changing dramatically as a result of man-made greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels. In this warmer climate, the frequency and severity of many meteorological phenomena (heat waves, droughts, intense precipitation, etc.) are changing, with strong and growing consequences for all human societies. Among the meteorological phenomena with the greatest impact are cold spells, the frequency and intensity of which are observed and expected to diminish in a warmer climate.

Is there still a risk of reliving events comparable to the most intense cold snaps we remember? Several researchers have carried out a statistical analysis of the likelihood of extreme cold snaps such as those experienced in recent decades, for example in 2012 in Western Europe, recurring in the 21^st century.

At the beginning of February 2012, France was one of the countries affected by very low temperatures and significant snowfalls, due to a particular meteorological situation that brought very cold air from Russia. The attribution study carried out shows that the probability of an event of this intensity recurring would have been around four times higher without the influence of human activity.

The likelihood of a cold snap like that of 2012 occurring again is now so low that it is highly unlikely to happen again in the 21^st century. The study estimates that there is almost a 9 in 10 chance that such a cold weather event will not occur again by 2100.

Similar conclusions can be drawn for the three other remarkable cold snaps studied here: in China in 2016, in Texas in 2021 and in Brazil in 2022.

‘The results of our research suggest that the most intense cold snaps, and the icy landscapes associated with them in mid-latitude regions, are disappearing or have already disappeared as a result of human-induced climate change,’ explains climatologist Aurélien Ribes, who led the study at Météo-France, in collaboration with the IPSL.

In France, the last cold snap recorded by Météo-France was in February 2018. These episodes have become rarer, shorter and less intense over the last 35 years, compared with the previous period. The four longest and most severe cold snaps in France (February 1956, January 1963, January 1985 and January 1987) occurred more than 30 years ago. The likelihood of such cold events occurring again in the 21^st century is now very low – only 1% for the level of cold reached in 1985, for example.

In addition to the expected impact on transport and energy infrastructures, the disappearance of cold snaps will also affect natural ecosystems, with winter cold acting as a protective factor for the development of certain species. The decline in the intensity of cold snaps should be seen in the context of heatwaves, which are becoming more intense and more frequent as a result of global warming.

While the most extreme cold snaps are set to disappear, numerous recent studies indicate that heatwaves far exceeding current historical values will occur in the decades to come. Both heatwaves and cold snaps are expected manifestations of global warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, and the extent of future changes will depend on future global emissions.

More

This work benefited from State aid managed by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche under the France 2030 programme, reference ANR-22-EXTR-0005, as part of the TRACCS research programme (PEPR Climat).

Authors

• Aurélien Ribes, Octave Tessiot et Julien Cattiaux, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (Météo-France/CNRS)
• Yoann Robin, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL)

Study online

Ribes, A., Y. Robin, O. Tessiot, and J. Cattiaux, 2025: Recent extreme cold waves are likely not to happen again this century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0013.1, in press.

Source : CNRS.