CLOSER: linking climate science to societal impacts
Complex climate-related disasters are never caused by a single factor: they arise from the interaction between climate change and non-climate factors such as land use, water management, exposure and social vulnerability. This analysis led to the CLOSER project, which aims to develop an integrated science of the attribution, prediction and impacts of climate-related disasters.
The project is based on six case studies spanning four continents and is intended to produce an allocation and forecasting protocol, as well as decision-support tools for practitioners in the field.
Its main tasks centre on:
- Attribution and forecasting of complex disasters: analysing how extreme weather and climate events overlap or occur in succession.
- Integration of socio-economic dynamics: modelling the actual impacts on populations, infrastructure and the economy.
- Evaluation of public policies: establishing a direct cause-and-effect link (‘closing the loop’) between policy decisions on management or mitigation and resilience to disasters.
The role of the LSCE and the IPSL
Within this international consortium (which brings together leading institutions such as the CNRS, the CMCC and University College London), the expertise of the LSCE and the IPSL teams (particularly through researchers specialising in the analysis of climate extremes) provides key expertise in:
- Physical and statistical modelling of extreme events (heatwaves, storms, floods).
- Development of simulation models capable of meeting immediate operational and societal needs.
A co-creation workshop (Living Lab) will be held in Guadeloupe in April 2027. It will bring together researchers and local stakeholders, government departments, local authorities, the health sector, the tourism sector and environmental management organisations to discuss cyclones and heatwaves.
More
The CLOSER project (Closing the Loop: Attribution of Complex Climate Disasters to Climatic and Policy Changes) is a Horizon Europe project (2026–2030), coordinated by Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and bringing together around fifteen European partners, including the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE) and the IPSL.
Website : https://closerproject.eu/
