Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing TC activity due to climate change. Here we present a holistic framework of modeling TC hazards and risk in a changing climate. First, we introduce a probabilistic TC model that can be used to generate large numbers of synthetic storms with physically correlated characteristics under projected climate conditions. Second, we discuss about TC wind, rainfall, and surge hazard modeling and the coupling with the TC model to estimate individual and compound hazard probabilities in a changing climate. Then, we discuss about the modeling of TC impact on infrastructure systems, particularly TC-blackout-heatwave compound risk.

Le séminaire aura lieu le mercredi 14 juin à 16h.

Lieu
LMD-Jussieu
4, place Jussieu 75005 PARIS
Salle 313, tour 45/55, 3^e étage