Forests, climate, and tree rings: forecasting the future state of complex systems
Margaret Evans travaille à l’University of Arizona.
We have questions about the future state of ecological systems – the future role of forests in the global carbon cycle, including the growth (carbon sequestration) of trees experiencing changing climate and their geographic distributions – yet ecological systems are complex.
My goal in this talk is to illustrate how the combined use of tree-ring and forest inventory data can help address these questions and grapple with this complexity. I will begin with a review of the ecology and policy of forest-based climate mitigation. I will then make the case for systematic collection of tree-ring data in national forest inventories to improve carbon accounting and prediction of forest carbon dynamics.
I’ll then illustrate ecological forecasting of tree growth using a Bayesian state-space model, focusing on three best practices aimed at improving model skill: data fusion (of tree-ring and forest inventory data), the use of incoming data to confront model predictions, and forecast uncertainty quantification.
Finally, I’ll highlight the use of tree-ring data to parameterize an empirical forestry (growth and yield) model, the Forest Vegetation Simulator, which forms the basis for a number of forest carbon calculators.
Systematically generating tree-ring data in a forest inventory context and systematically using those data to improve forest carbon forecasting is a powerful and urgently needed approach to support forest-based climate mitigation in the face of ecological complexity.
ENS – Salle Lien Hua – E350 • 24, rue Lhomond 75005 PARIS