We tend to think that more moisture in the atmosphere would lead to more intense rains. This expectation may be supported, for example, by taking a scatter plot between rain and column precipitable water. The present talk suggests, however, that the main consequence of intense rains with more moistures in the atmosphere is an increasing chance of a rain to occur, rather than of an increase in the expected magnitude. This tendency equally applies to any rains above 1 mm/6h. The result is derived from an analysis of 33 local rain–gauge station data and a shared sounding over Friuli Venezia Giulia, North-East Italy.

Le séminaire sera donné en français.

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