Extreme weather event attribution analyses attempt to quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on individual weather events. Current technologies have permitted confidence attribution statements about a wide variety of weather types, including heat waves, tropical cyclones and other intense storms.

Traditionally, these analyses have heavily relied on bespoke climate model simulations of worlds with and without the human interference in the climate system. Differences between these sets of simulations are then interpreted in a Pearl causal inference setting.

I will present a variety of examples of our Pearl attribution statements about the human influence on selected heat waves and hurricanes.

I will then present an alternative method of extreme weather event attribution based solely on observations without directly using climate model and invoking the causal inference methods of Granger. Examples will include the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, Hurricane Helene and the recent disaster in Texas.

Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

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