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Titre : Linear Trends in the Sea Surface Temperature of the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Implications for the El Nino- Southern Oscillation
Nom du conférencier : Michelle L'Heureux
Son affiliation : NOAA
Laboratoire organisateur : LMD
Date et heure : 12-04-2011 11h00
Lieu : Salle de réunion du LMD/Jussieu, UPMC, Tour 45-55, 3e étage - Paris 5e
Résumé :

A simple decomposition of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean demonstrates that nearly all of the linear trends over the past 60 years are found in two leading patterns. The first pattern is strongly related to SST variations in the Nino-3.4 region, an area commonly used to monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The second pattern resembles the canonical ENSO pattern, but unlike the first pattern, its existence solely depends on the presence of linear trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The decomposition also uncovers a third pattern, often referred to as "El Nino Modoki" or the "Central Pacific El Nino," but no significant linear trend is evident. Therefore, linear trends across the equatorial Pacific have their most direct impact on the classical ENSO SST pattern and should be considered when using ocean-based indices to define ENSO.

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