Accueil > Actualités > Séminaires > Séminaire de Fang Zhao au LSCE


Titre : Historical Warming Has About Tripled Global Population Annually Exposed to Extreme Events
Nom du conférencier : Fang Zhao
Son affiliation : PIK, Potsdam -
Laboratoire organisateur : LSCE
Date et heure : 06-11-2018 16h00
Lieu : LSCE, Bâtiment ICE, Orme des merisiers, Room 1129
Résumé :

Weather induced extreme events such as crop failure, river floods, tropical cyclones, heatwaves and droughts represent an immediate threat to communities. In spite of their different characteristics they all have a joint potential to cause (long-term) economic losses, displacement, persistence of poverty, or social de-stabilisation. According to newly released synchronized climate impact simulations, climate change from pre-industrial conditions to today’s 1°C global warming has about tripled the fraction of the global population annually exposed to extreme events. In comparison, reference simulations that account for socio-economic change but assume stable pre-industrial climate conditions show that historical changes in population distribution, land use and – to a limited extent – other direct human influences alone have reduced the fraction of the global population annually exposed to extreme events by about 10%. Assuming fixed year 2005 socio-economic conditions the global population exposed to spatially confined events (river floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires, and crop failures) shows a purely climate change-driven increase of 69 million people at 1.5°C, and 91 million people at 2°C global warming compared to pre-industrial climate conditions. The population exposed to spatially extensive events (droughts and heatwaves) increases by 507 mio people at 1.5°C and 824 mio people at 2°C. The new repository of harmonized multi-impact model data is intended to evolve in parallel to the climate modelling exercise CMIP and provide the basis for new event-based approaches to estimating the societal impacts of climate change.

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