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Seminar

Title : Trends in Southern Hemisphere climate variability and impacts on regional rainfall
Name of the speaker : Matthew ENGLAND
Affiliation : Climate Change Research Centre, Australia m.england@unsw.edu.au
Laboratory organizer : LOCEAN
Date and time : 28-06-2011 12h15
Location : UPMC, 4 place Jussieu, Paris 5e, Tour 46, Rez-de-chaussée
Summary :


Global ocean sea surface temperature (SST) exhibits significant year-to-year variability, with important implications for regional atmospheric circulation.


Like air temperature, the upper ocean has warmed significantly over the past century in a non-uniform way. Southern Hemisphere climate and rainfall variability is fundamentally controlled by ocean SST variations, primarily those associated with the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Significant rainfall variability is also associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a large-scale pressure oscillation between the Antarctic and mid-latitudes.


The SAM has exhibited a significant trend in recent decades, projected to continue over the next 50 years. The SST in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans is also changing and this could imply long-term trends in the behaviour of ENSO and the IOD. In this presentation I will overview the major drivers of Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability and their associated predictability. I will also outline how these natural modes are changing and what the implications are for regional climate.