Séminaire
Volatility in crop production and prices caused by natural climate variability (ENSO) and climate change have profound impacts on food security for the world’s poor who spend the bulk of their income on food. This year, El Nino conditions are unprecedented in recorded history and will have major effects on precipitation, crop production, and food prices in regions with strong teleconnections, with spillovers to global agricultural markets. Meanwhile, climate change is likely to alter the annual cycle of precipitation in tropical areas, adding to volatility in crop production and prices over time.
By the end of the century, the season averaged growing temperature will very likely exceed the highest temperature ever recorded throughout the tropics and subtropics, placing greater pressure on high-productivity temperature regions for global food supplies. Even by mid-century, the increase in temperature alone is projected to cause a 20% reduction in the yield of all of the major grains (maize, wheat, rice and soybeans). The breadbasket countries in the midlatitudes will experience marked increases in year-to-year volatility in crop production. Greater stresses on the major crops due to climate change, coupled with the rising demand for food due to population growth and development, present significant challenges to achieving global food security.
In this seminar, David Battisti and Roz Naylor will explore the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop volatility and food security, drawing on their collaborative research and papers.