Séminaire
Recent years have seen a rapid expansion in the ability of earth system models to describe and predict the physical state of the ocean on time-scales from seasonal (3 months) to decadal (5-10 years). Such forecasts are potentially of great value to society, as they span the gap between the short (days-to-weeks) time scales of weather forecasts and the long (century) time-scales of climate projections: importantly, these are also the time-scales where most users make important decisions. However, a translation step is required to convert the outputs from these models, which are typically physical variables, into variables that are directly relevant to end-users (e.g. distribution and productivity of fish stocks). Here I describe the work being done to generate predictions of biological variables on this seasonal-to-decadal time-scale, and thereby develop so-called “Marine Ecological Climate Services”. I review the state of the art in this new field and existing ecological forecast products around the world while highlighting the current lack of such products in Europe. I then use the lessons learned to identify other “low-hanging fruit” that can potentially be predicted, focusing on case studies currently under development, including the distribution of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), and the productivity of herring (Clupea harengus). However, ensuring the usefulness of these forecast products also requires close collaboration with actively engaged end-users and I discuss the importance of co-development. Finally, I also look at other places around the world where this approach could be employed and could potentially be of use to support climate adaptation and sustainable development goals.
Juliette.Mignot@locean-ipsl.upmc.fr