Séminaire
A long standing controversy has centered on temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere during the satellite era. Coupled models on average warm far more than any observational estimates over this period, while even AMIP simulations with observed SSTs (almost all) warm too much. I will show that upper tropospheric trends in AMIP simulations are sensitive to the SST data used as a boundary condition. Examining an atmospheric model that produces realistic hurricane frequencies, we find that different SST data sets also produce differing trends in Atlantic hurricane frequency. The SST data set that results in the smallest upper tropospheric temperature trend results in more realistic hurricane trends as well. I will also briefly discuss the bias introduced in upper tropospheric trends by uncoupling atmosphere from ocean as in these AMIP simulations.
ATTENTION !
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MP Lefebvre, LMD